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Election 2008: Is it a Horse Race, or will a Dark Horse Emerge?

by roxy317

Wed Aug 15, 2007 at 02:16:26 PM EST

with cho and avahome

Jockeying for Position

As the election season heats up, Democrats are banking on the low approval rating scored by the Bush Administration, with Clinton, Obama and Edwards nearly neck and neck out of the gate. There have been missteps by each candidate, but all are seemingly confident of a Democratic win in November of 2008. With the only real lingering question ... "Who" will the winner be? Hillary's war chest, Obama's silver tongue or Edward's populist message.

In the Republican field ... McCain, Giuliani, Thompson and Romney are jockeying for position. According to the Guardian:

For Iowa Republicans, Romney is far ahead, but 31 percent haven't picked a candidate. Thompson places third even though he hasn't declared his candidacy, and former front-runner John McCain's support has dropped to 3 percent.

Yes, in the primaries for both parties it appears to be any man's [or woman's] horse race.

But ...

commentary :: :: :: buzz-it!

Playing the Odds

A View from the right side of the track

The impact of "voting blocs" on elections in the United States has always been a given. Endorsements from Unions and other groups is equal to the support of that voting bloc. The Moral Majority controls just such a voting bloc -- one of the largest and most influential voting blocs on the American political scene today. Founder Richard Viguerie, in a May 19th, 2006 editorial in the Washington Post, claims that this conservative base was the deciding factor in every presidential election since 1974.

Now, Viguerie's claims could just be pompous self-importance, but they could also have some truth. The group has not yet endorsed any of the current Republican contenders, so perhaps Vigeruie's claims bear closer scrutiny.

Presidential approval ratings are hovering somewhere around 26% -- and a 31% undecided in the Republican polling it would seem a ripe field for a dark horse ...

A View from the left side of the track

Citing poll numbers for the Democrats, again from the Guardian:

Hillary Rodham Clinton, 27 percent
Barack Obama, 22 percent
John Edwards, 22 percent

Again, no clear front-runner on the track. Each one has strong support within certain factions, but none are an ideal candidate. Perhaps the Democrats are also ripe for a dark horse ...

Dark Horse Candidates?

So, who would the Dobsonites support?

Dobson has not endorsed any candidates. He told "U.S. News & World Report" that he thinks Gingrich is the "brightest guy out there" and "the most articulate politician on the scene today."

Gingrich is an intelligent guy ... he knew he had to appease the "conservative base" if he planned on courting their vote in a presidential run. Could that be why on March 9th, 2007 ABC News reported:

Setting the stage for his entry into the presidential race, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., gave a radio interview to be broadcast today with Focus on the Family's James Dobson, in which Gingrich for the first time publicly acknowledged cheating on his first and second wives.

Then, viola, on August 10th Eleanor Clift had this to say:

But if anybody can tap into voter anger to force an overhaul of the political process, it�s Gingrich. He did it in 1994 with the Contract With America, and he�s prepared to enter the presidential race as the agent for change on the Republican side.

Voice of America is reporting that Gingrich will decide by October whether he will make a bid for the presidency.

Democrats Dark Horse?

Al Gore has repeatedly said he has no intention of entering the presidential race, but comments made in Singapore recently may show a softening of that rhetoric. It seems that only Canada, India and Turkey thought this public statement important enough to report:

"I may re-enter politics at some point in the future because I'm only 59 years old," Gore told reporters on the sidelines of a forum in Singapore.

Gore said he has "no plan" to run in the 2008 presidential election but aims to make the environment a focus of public discussion during the campaign.

"There is no single candidate that is putting forward a comprehensive argument about the environment or making climate change a priority," Gore said.

"I will continue to work so that public opinion will push all candidates to make climate a priority."

Is it possible that if the "climate" is right, Gore will decide to make the presidential run? The folks over at AlGore.org have an interesting way of reading between the lines ...

He has not changed his message �I have no plans to run in 2008,� but for the first time he is shifting �I haven�t ruled out running in the future,� to �I may re-enter politics at some point in the future because I�m only 59.�

Then he begins to set up the thing he will likely point to when he announces he�s coming in for 2008: �There is no single candidate that is putting forward a comprehensive argument about the environment or making climate change a priority," Gore said. �"I will continue to work so that public opinion will push all candidates to make climate a priority."

It�s August 9. The language shift has begun!

Ladies and Gentlemen ... place your wagers.

Election 2008: Is it a Horse Race, or will a Dark Horse Emerge? | 10 comments (10 topical, 0 hidden)

Al Gore (5.00 / 2) (#1)

by TXsharon on Tue Aug 14, 2007 at 10:15:07 PM EST

I'll put my money on Gore too ... (5.00 / 1) (#2)

just hoping he gets himself to the gate.

by roxy317 on Tue Aug 14, 2007 at 11:15:48 PM EST

A perfect storm weatherwise... (5.00 / 1) (#3)

is really bolstering Al's cause re climate change. Personally I'd like to see him be able to remain in the forefront...his passion is contagious. I am sure the Nobel Peace Prize is waiting in the wings for him....

"If the people will lead, the leaders will follow."

by avahome on Wed Aug 15, 2007 at 08:18:03 AM EST

I agree on Gore (5.00 / 1) (#4)

But I hope the "perfect story" is not the hurricaine (or typhoon) coming Roxy's way.

(Maybe it's passed. I haven't checked the weather this morning.)

by carol white on Wed Aug 15, 2007 at 10:08:07 AM EST

Newt.......... (5.00 / 1) (#5)

This man to me is just...uhhh a blow hard know it all. Go for it Newt.......

Just read this piece this morning:
excerpt:
Rove's Blind Spot

Early in Bill Clinton's presidency, Weekly Standard editor William Kristol had persuaded Republicans to oppose Clinton's health-care program on political grounds: The provision of universal health coverage would permanently help the Democrats and hence should be defeated. A couple of years later, then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich, in tandem with Republican strategist Grover Norquist, began proclaiming that government programs such as Medicare and Social Security were artifacts of the industrial age, and, now that the economy had moved on to the information age, Americans would rely on the market for their security if only those creaking relics from the New Deal and the Great Society could be disposed of. By 2000, Rove and Bush had joined these peewee league intellectuals in arguing that the economic changes of our age required the lowering of the old safety nets.(my emphasis added)

by avahome on Wed Aug 15, 2007 at 10:58:51 AM EST

Surprise? (5.00 / 1) (#6)

Recommend review of Eisenhower's first campaign in which he won the nomination in New Hampshire with a clear majority against Taft, phenomenal considering he didn't campaign personally.

And of course Minnesota, where he won the primary as a write-in candidate. Both took place in the Spring of '52, and following his win at the convention, he pledged to go "all out" beginning right after Labor Day.

My thinking hasn't changed on this: any candidate (say, Gore) running as an independent has a shot at the job, as long as s/he waits until at least 4 Jul '08.

by rba on Wed Aug 15, 2007 at 12:21:19 PM EST

Quote from Newt - $30M magic number (5.00 / 1) (#7)

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/09/12/quote_of_the_day.html

"I will decide based on whether I have about $30 million in committed campaign contributions and whether I think it is possible to run a campaign based on ideas rather than 30-second sound bites."
-- Newt Gingrich, hinting again to the Washington Times
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070912/NATION/109120056 that he might run for president in 2008.

by avahome on Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 11:54:17 AM EST

Gingrich plots revenge on Clintons (none / 0) (#8)

Okay Newt.........October 15 is the "decider" day! I won't hold my breath! Bets anyone?

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,2170155,00.html
excerpt:

Firebrand Republican threatens last-minute White House run to end primary 'chaos' - and stop Hillary
Joanna Walters in Washington
Sunday September 16, 2007
The Observer
One of the most divisive figures in American politics during Bill Clinton's presidency is contemplating a 'wild-card' run for the White House in a desperate bid to oppose his old enemy's wife - Democrat front-runner Hillary Clinton.
Republican Newt Gingrich is so unimpressed with his own party's 'chaotic' line-up of candidates to replace President Bush in the 2008 elections that he has threatened to make a dramatic late entry into the race.
- snip -
Gingrich admits he was weak when he committed adultery, but claims he was not a hypocrite because he never lied to Congress.
Anuzis said he did not think Gingrich's multiple marriages and infidelities would bother the majority of Republicans these days: 'Bill Clinton changed the definition of politics and nowadays it's more about policies and less about whether someone inhaled or got a divorce. He set a new level of the bar and it would be difficult to find another politician who could wriggle below that.'
All candidates wishing to enter the Utah primary are obliged to have paid their entry fees by 15 October. Either way, Gingrich will need to have made a decision by then.

by avahome on Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 12:31:21 PM EST

Newt's input on GOP skipping out..... (none / 0) (#9)

Whatever happened to the big tent?

4 GOP candidates' decision to skip black forum seen hurting party in '08

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/09/19/4_gop_candidates_decision_to_skip_black_forum_ seen_hurting_party_in_08/

"I think it is a terrible mistake," former House speaker Newt Gingrich said in a telephone interview yesterday. "I did everything I could to convince them it was the right thing to do, [but] we are in this cycle where Republicans don't talk to minority groups," he said. Yet Gingrich added Republicans cannot afford to ignore black voters during the primaries because the GOP will need their support if they hope to win the general election.
-snip -
The Republican Party has made major efforts to court the black vote. President Bush received an estimated 9 percent of the black vote in 2000 and 11 percent in 2004; exit polls in Ohio put Bush's black vote in 2004 at 16 percent, which some analysts said won him the state and reelection. But when the Republican Party ran several high-profile black candidates in 2006, Michael Steele lost his race for US senator in Maryland, Lynn Swann lost his bid for governor in Pennsylvania, and Kenneth Blackwell lost his campaign for governor in Ohio.
Max Hilaire, chairman of political science at Morgan State University, said that black voters may see the decision by the four candidates not to attend the forum as a snub. "While the overwhelming majority of blacks don't support the Republican Party, that is not a reason not to show up," Hilaire said, noting that a Republican candidate may need 10 percent or more of the black vote to win the general election. (my emphasis added)

by avahome on Thu Sep 20, 2007 at 02:47:57 PM EST

David Broder's take on Newt...... (none / 0) (#10)

Keep on hammering Newt....
Newt's Vision Thing
excerpt:

The fact that he is prepared to say plainly that Republicans, if they are to have a prayer of electing George Bush's successor, must offer "a clean break" from Bush's policies sets Gingrich apart. No one in the Republican field except the semi-eccentric Ron Paul has taken that position -- and the debate has been weaker because of the silence.
Gingrich shies away from running for good reason. His personal history and the scars he bears from leading the 1994 revolution that brought Republicans to power in Congress for a dozen years would make it hard for him to mobilize the money and support needed in an already crowded field.
Moreover, he is right in saying that when "10 guys are lined up like penguins" for TV debates in which answers must be compressed to 60-second sound bites, the "big ideas" he wants to promote would probably be lost.
So he is opting for American Solutions for Winning the Future, a policy and advocacy group for the Internet age that will be launched at the end of this month from the west front of the Capitol, where Gingrich staged his "Contract With America" signing at the start of the 1994 campaign. (my emphasis added)

http://www.americansolutions.com/

by avahome on Thu Sep 27, 2007 at 10:17:42 AM EST

Election 2008: Is it a Horse Race, or will a Dark Horse Emerge? | 10 comments (10 topical, 0 hidden)

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