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Arctic Sea Ice: Going, Going, Gone

by rcs1

Bad news on the global warming front.  From Science , news 5/2/07 (subscription):
With its wreath of sea ice shrinking ever smaller over the last half-century, the Arctic has served as global warming's canary in the coal mine. By 2050 to 2100, according to climate model predictions, Arctic summers will be ice-free for the first time in about a million years. But new research reveals the ice has been vanishing about 3 times faster than the models have predicted, shifting the inevitable meltdown about 30 years ahead of schedule.



But wait'll you see the spin the Anchorage Daily News has put on it!  (Below the fold.) Crossposted at Daily Kos


commentary :: :: :: buzz-it!
Today's Anchorage Daily News has picked up the story:

One report noted there was less Arctic sea ice in April than had ever been recorded that month since satellite imagery of the northern ocean began in 1979. Another found that the melting of the Arctic ice cap is proceeding faster than anyone expected.

The net result is that predictions about the rate of ice melting are being revised.  Recent predictions that it could ALL be gone as soon as 2050 are already looking too optimistic.  At the current rate of melting, it's likely happen much sooner.

Drastic sounding scenarios such as those grew only more credible last week as scientists who measure the Arctic ice reported a new low for the month of April. Satellite imagery that can peer through clouds found only 13.9 million square kilometers of ice.

ALBEDO:  The Planet's Reflectivity
The thing about it is, reduction of sea ice doesn't just tell us that global warming is happening, its disappearance also causes warming to happen more quickly.  That's because of something called albedo, or the reflectivity of the earth's surface.  White surface, like ice, reflects more solar energy away, back to space.  Open water is much darker in color, and absorbs more of the energy of the sun's rays.  For the numbers geeks reading this diary, the Science article Science provides more detail:

Stroeve's team compared results from the IPCC's 18 climate models with data from aircraft and ship reports and satellite measurements. The team found that, on average, the IPCC models simulated ice losses in September (when ice retreats to its annual minimum) at 2.5% per decade from 1953 to 2006. In contrast, the real-world observations show September ice actually diminished by about 7.8% per decade during that period. This suggests current model projections are overly conservative, and summer sea ice may disappear considerably earlier than thought, the authors conclude online 1 May in Geophysical Research Letters.

Meanwhile, officials in Alaska are up in arms about the prospect of the Polar Bear being listed as endangered.  Yesterday's Anchorage Daily News:
Gov. Sarah Palin and a majority of legislators strongly oppose the listing, and say the acknowledged intent behind it -- curbing greenhouse gas emissions nationally -- should be debated in another forum, not a law aimed at protecting animals.

It's worth reading the whole article.  It respresents some energetic global warming denying.  Here's one snippet to give you a taste:

The official state testimony claims sea ice is melting, but the Fish and Wildlife Service picked out the most extreme climate models to predict future effects. State officials say scientists disagree over humans' role in warming, a more comprehensive evaluation is needed and polar bears can adapt to less ice.


MISSING THE POINT
Anchorage Daily News at least partly misses the point, as it attempts to make lemonade of of the latest crop of lemons.  The melting of sea ice means shipping lanes will be open several weeks longer, thus shortening the season for premium cost deliveries of food and other essentials by air.  So consumer prices will be lower.  And furthermore:

And summer seismic crews employed by oil companies won't be hampered as much by ice.  Said [Kathleen] Cole [spokesman for the National Weather Service]: "I think everybody is going to be happy about that."

Global warming will create conditions for more intensive oil exploration?  That's really missing the point, isn't it?  Sounds like something that cranky ol' Ted Stevens (R-AK) or James Inhofe (R-OK) would crow about on the Senate floor.  Mama mia!

Display:
The greatest threat from global warming is that when polar ice melts, sea level rises.

Unfortunately, no one in the U.S. is going to die if (when) Florida becomes an island chain: otherwise we'd care. No Americans will die because it will happen slowly and we are a wealthy nation. Floridians  will simply move to higher ground. Even commerce will adapt -- some will go out of business, some will prosper, entrepreneurs will fill in the gaps. And when the price of oranges gets too high, we'll eat fewer oranges.

But God help Bangladesh. More than 147,000,000 of the world's poorest people live on 56,000 mi2 of land. That's the same as cramming everyone currently living in CA, TX, NY, FL, IL, PA, OH, MI, and GA, into Iowa.

About 3/4 of the land in Bangladesh is less than 30' above sea level. Some estimates put 10% of the country at just 3' above sea level. And about 7% of Bangladesh is under water at least part of the time.

If these people could actually afford to move, they'd have 3 options: India, India, or India (unless you count Myanmar. I wouldn't). But they can't afford to move, so they'll have to be relocated.

Some idiots (especially the Congressional variety) argue that trying to mitigate global warming is so expensive it will place too large a burden on our economy. But when all those people in Bangladesh need to be relocated, guess who's gonna foot most of that bill (assuming we're still a superpower)?

Once the world managed to pry it loose from Bush and Cheney's grubby little fingers, the Indian Ocean Tsunami of 2004 cost the U.S. government and  its citizens about $2 billion: nearly 2% of our GNP. The Indian Ocean Tsunami killed 250,000 people.

How much will cost to save the lives of 30 or 40 million once the situation becomes critical?

"To the politician and a priest
We're in the belly of the beast
Because we fed it"

Amos Lee, "Freedom"

by Todd Johnston on Mon May 07, 2007 at 10:58:56 PM EST
I love that the reflectivity is called Albedo for I have been thinking of alchemy a great deal lately in response to the Global Warming phenomenon.  The other two phases of the alchemical adept's task with   matter are called the items in my subject line.  The Albedo is the whitening, the Rubedo is the reddening or in lay terms the application of heat to a material and the Nigredo is the blackening of the material whether it be of matter or psyche.  The Rubedo is  evidently the state of the planet.  The Nigredo, in terms of the psyche, can also be seen as the dark night of the soul, the underground, or hell. These phases must be transversed to reach the state of purity known as the Philosophers Stone, which is commonly and ridiculously reduced in gradeschool parlance to "gold."

The great saying of Hermes Trismagistus is:AS ABOVE , SO BELOW.  What is taking place in the larger environmental context is also occurring on the personal plane. The ongoing reason-defying debate is clearly evidence of the Nigredo stage.  

by DEFuning on Mon May 07, 2007 at 04:48:29 PM EST

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