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Wanted: A Twenty First Century George Kennan

by rcs1

The commentary below was originally posted earlier today on my blog the Intrepid Liberal Journal.

In July 1947, George F. Kennan published an article in the quarterly edition of Foreign Affairs entitled "Sources of Soviet Conduct." Kennan originally drafted the article as a paper for Defense Secretary James Forrestal. When he submitted it to Foreign Affairs, Kennan used the moniker "Mr. X." The piece was known as "containment" and is credited with guiding American foreign policy under presidents of both parties during the cold war.


commentary :: :: :: buzz-it!
America was an exhausted nation in 1947 and Kennan's ideas helped President Harry Truman mobilize a war weary population for long-term struggle against Soviet expansionism. Ostensibly, Kennan wanted to firm America's resolve against the Soviets but the greatest legacy of "containment" is that almost sixty years later the world is still spinning.

Today, civilized nations of order desperately need a credible strategy that firmly stands up to the challenge posed by radical Islam without igniting another world war. As Bob Herbert sagely wrote in the New York Times yesterday,

"There is no grand solution to the centuries-old problems of the Middle East. As with the cold war between the United States and the Soviet Union, you try to keep things as cool as possible, step by sometimes agonizing step. It may not be pretty, and it will surely be frustrating. But if the conflict, however aggravating, can be kept cold as opposed to hot, you're ahead of the game."

The lynchpin to any containment policy against radical Islam is a rapprochement between Israel and the international community. Hezbollah's aggression inside Lebanon and Israel's heavy-handed response illustrates that a long-term rapprochement must be initiated forthwith. Unless the schism between Israel and the civilized world that includes the Western Alliance and hopefully emerging moderate voices in the mid-east is healed, there will be more conflicts like Lebanon that can spin out of control.

Tactically, Israel was responding to incursions inside their borders and the kidnapping of their soldiers. When viewed in that context Israel's response is morally reprehensible and strategically stupid.

"War is politics by other means" as the brilliant Prussian General Claus Von Klauswitz once postulated. Hezbollah appears to be achieving their political aims even as Israel overwhelms them militarily. Hezbollah is a political idea that simply can't be wiped out or "degraded" militarily.

Their enemies understand that Israel is a first class military power, which can't be defeated in conventional warfare. So instead Hezbollah has successfully provoked Israel into a conflict that undermines their moral standing in the world. Innocents are dying on both sides with nothing good being accomplished. The cause of peace has not been advanced. Only more innocent blood has been spilled.

But Israel is not an evil country in spite of vile Anti-Semitic diatribes on the blogosphere or the international community. Israel is also not stupid. I am opposed to how Israel handled this crisis and disgusted by the loss of innocent life in Lebanon. But I can also understand why Israel was compelled to respond as they did.

This was not about their two kidnapped soldiers. Israel's response was due to radical Islam on their doorstep. Both Hezbollah and Hamas are proxies for a lunatic regime in Iran on record for supporting Israel's destruction. Iran is a formidable adversary that has gained substantially from the Iraq War. Israel's number one ally, the United States is overextended and their influence in the region severely diminished.

Meanwhile, under Iranian direction Hezbollah and Hamas have demonstrated the ability to penetrate Israeli territory, commit acts of terrorism and they now possess sophisticated missiles that target Israel's cities. In that context what is a disproportionate response? The United States responded to 9/11 by knocking off two governments in Afghanistan and Iraq. And Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11!

Too many of Israel's critics dismiss their loss of life as simply not comparable to the blood spilled in Palestine or Lebanon. Fair enough but Israel is a small population and a few deaths are keenly felt and any democratically elected government is compelled to demonstrate resolve when their citizens are murdered.

So Israel is encircled and from their perspective the international community is hostile to their existence and indifferent to their loss of life. Israel regards the international community as largely Anti-Semitic and unsympathetic to its struggle of preserving their democracy in a despotic and hostile neighborhood. The Europeans for example are distrusted by Israel for their historic Anti-Semitism and feckless pattern of portraying Israel as morally equivalent to terrorists.

Hence, when Israel is confronted with radical Islam at their doorstep they're convinced that other than a weakened United States they have no friends. There is no coherent international effort to isolate radical Islam. They see no alternative other than to crush those dedicated to their destruction with overwhelming force. In the Israeli mindset, it's them or us and we're on our own. In fairness to Israel their perspective is not without merit. U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan recently condemned Israel and only grudgingly acknowledged Hezbollah's culpability.

To the world at large Israel is an inflexible nation that pours kerosene on fire. As far as much of the world is concerned Israel sets impossible conditions for peace with Palestinians. Israel claims it wants to do business with a moderate civilized society but makes it impossible for one to emerge as the Palestinians struggle to live under a humiliating and oppressive occupation. Israel claims it prefers moderate elected governments in the Arab world but undermines Abbas in Palestine and with military power brings the democratically elected government in Lebanon to its knees. Israel drops leaflets warning the Lebanese of bombings to come but destroys the infrastructure required for them to safely escape violent death.

Hence, Israel is viewed by much of the world as an obstacle to peace. I consider myself a friend of Israel. I'm Jewish and proud of my heritage. But even friends of Israel must be intellectually honest and acknowledge that a legitimate critique of their policy is in order. Their heavy- handed treatment of the Palestinians as well as their killing of innocent life in Lebanon has strengthened Islamic fascism. It may not be fair given my country's transgressions and ill-advised military ventures in recent years but I expect more of Israel anyway.

Either way the civilized world and Israel are disappointed in each other and have let each other down. So how do we move forward? The first step is for the civilized world to accept that Israel shares their humane values and objective for stability. The world and Israel both lose if they're working at cross purposes against radical Islam. Meanwhile, Israel must adjust their strategic posture from unilateralism to coordination with the international community against radical Islam. Otherwise, their divisions will continue to be exploited by Islamic fundamentalists and eventually an act of terrorism will engulf the world in unremitting conflict.

There may be an opportunity to salvage something positive from the horrific loss of life these past two weeks. Israel has signaled their willingness to accept an international peacekeeping force serving as a buffer on the Lebanese border. That is a major leap for Israel given their suspicion of the international community. The international community should seize this opportunity to earn Israel's confidence and in return enlist their cooperation to coordinate their policies instead of Israel's historic unilaterism that can be disproportionate.

Sadly, the New York Times reports that while numerous nations favor an international force in theory there is reluctance to commit.

"The United States has ruled out its soldiers' participating, NATO says it is overstretched, Britain feels its troops are over committed and Germany says it is willing to participate only if Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia that it would police, agrees to it, a highly unlikely development."

Obviously the world today does not have statesmen such as Churchill and FDR. The real obstacle is weak leadership from Washington. America is still haunted by its participation in a multinational force after Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 1982. Furthermore, President Bush has no political capital with an international community he's disrespected for five years and an American public he lied to about Iraq. His administration is incapable of persuading a weary and increasingly isolationist American public to participate in such a force or to heal the breach between Israel and the international community.

This is unfortunate. An Israel that is convinced there is an international community that has its back against radical Islam will be less inclined to respond to every provocation with overwhelming force. An international peacekeeping force that even includes Arab nations can preserve stability, build political bridges between Israel and the world and further isolate the Jihadists.

It might also be something to build upon and utilize in the Palestinian territories. The Palestinian Authority is not capable of policing against terrorism and the presence of the Israeli military only serves to poison the atmosphere. A multinational force in the territories that earns both the confidence of Israel and the Palestinian population may allow the Palestinians to better develop a civil society that facilitates a two state solution.

Most importantly, the flame of radical Islam won't be continuously fed and better contained. Part of the price for this is that Israel will have to accept that when terrorist incidents take place they can't simply respond unilaterally and inflame matters. Israel will have to compromise and accept that they're part of an international effort.

As for the international community there must be an understanding that stability and order come with a price as well. That price is resources and people put in harms way to prevent a wider conflict from engulfing the planet. If the world doesn't want Israel to act against terrorism then an alternative mechanism of enforcement must be in place. There will setbacks and miscalculations. The learning curve will be steep.

No country can undertake this alone but America will have to take the lead. The contradictions of interests among nations as diverse as Russia, Egypt and Israel are immense. Integrating such a coalition into a containment policy against radical Islam will require tremendous skill, persuasion, patience and resolve.

All fires burn out eventually if they're contained and not fed. It may take decades but a global strategy of containment is far better than a "global war on terror" which might result in Armageddon. Hopefully, the next American president will have strategic thinkers such as George Kennan in 1947 who has given the matter some thought.

Display:
I posted this comment last week; after reading this commentary, I think it deserves a second posting. -wander

I've been trying to do a bit more background reading on the American presence in Lebanon today. One bit of history that I found most interesting comes from a timeline from PBS' Frontline: Target America.

In particular, I was interested in the entry for March 16, 1984:

March 16, 1984    CIA Station Chief William Buckley kidnapped

Buckley was the fourth person to be kidnapped by militant Islamic extremists in Lebanon. The first American hostage, American University of Beirut President David Dodge, had been kidnapped in July 1982. Eventually, 30 Westerners would be kidnapped during the 10-year-long Lebanese hostage-taking crisis (1982-1992).

Americans who were kidnapped included journalist Terry Anderson, American University of Beirut librarian Peter Kilburn, and Benjamin Weir, a Presbyterian minister. While some of the prisoners lived through captivity -- Anderson spent the longest time as a hostage, 2,454 days -- some, including Buckley, died in captivity or were killed by their kidnappers.

U.S. officials believed that the Iranian-backed Hezbollah was behind most of the kidnappings and the Reagan administration devised a covert plan. Iran was desperately running out of military supplies in its war with Iraq, but Congress had banned the sale of American arms to countries like Iran that sponsored terrorism. Reagan was advised that a bargain could be struck -- secret arms sales to Iran, hostages back to the U.S. The plan, when it was revealed to the public, was decried as a failure and anathema to the U.S. policy of refusing to negotiate with terrorists.

In August 1985, the first consignment of arms to Iran was sent -- 100 anti-tank missiles provided by Israel; another 408 were sent the following month. [emphasis added] As a result of the deal, American hostage Benjamin Weir was released from captivity; he had been imprisoned for 495 days. Only two other hostages were released as a result of the arms-for-hostages deal: in July 1986, Martin Jenco, a Catholic priest, was released; and the administrator of the American University of Beirut's medical school, David Jacobson, was released in November 1986.

Since the funds from the arms sales to Iran were secretly, and illegally, funneled to the U.S.-backed Contras fighting to overthrow the Sandinista regime in Nicaragua, the infamous episode became known as the "Iran-Contra affair." (See the "Final Report of the Independent Counsel for Iran/Contra Matters.)

What I cannot find spelled out: did Israel know that its anti-tank missiles were being given to Hezbollah as part of the arms for hostages exchange? And, if so, how does that play into the current state of affairs?

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by wanderindiana on Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 09:44:43 PM EST

The arms shipments to Iran were more likely used - noted in your cited article - on the Iraqi invaders.  [Iran Chamber.com backgrounder.  Best I could find on short notice.]

by rba on Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 10:51:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But more specifically, what I want to know is whether or not the weapons went from Israel to Iran directly or if they were purchased from Israel by the U.S. and then shipped to Iran.

Were they directly involved; were they aware of what the U.S. was planning, and cooperating with the U.S.; or, were they blindly supplying weapons to the U.S. that would end up benefitting their enemies (Hezbollah included as part of the chain)?
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by wanderindiana on Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 11:32:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Found the article here:

The shipments were authorized by the White House, but were carried out by private American carriers under the top-secret direction of the Israeli government, one source said. Israeli officials involved in the operation in 1985 were identified by sources as then-Prime Minister Shimon Peres and Defense Minister Yitzhak Rabin.

. . .

Former Iranian President Abolhassan Bani-Sadr, now exiled in Paris, said on ABC's "Night Line" program Wednesday that in early September he learned through his own sources that "an American airplane with no markings did in fact deliver spare parts to Iran." A similar delivery took place in August of this year, Bani-Sadr claimed.

In September, the Danish Sailors Union claimed that a ship from Denmark had carried at least 3,600 tons of American-made weapons to Iran from Israel between May and August of this year.

Union spokesman Henrik Berlau said that the Danish freighter Ilse TH had carried four 900-ton shipments from the Israeli port of Eilat to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas.

"We have the documentation, the log and the testimony of the sailors on board. We have the exact dates. There is absolutely no doubt," Berlau said.

Shipments Began in 1985

The arms shipments apparently began at least a year earlier. On Sept. 15, 1985, a DC-8 cargo jet took off from Iran after delivering weapons to the Khomeini regime and landed in Israel -- just a day after Shia terrorists released Weir.

Israeli officials denied for two days that the plane was there, then acknowledged that the jet had landed. Air traffic controllers in Ankara, Turkey, and Beirut told reporters that the plane had reported its destination as Malaga, Spain, but then reported communications problems and headed for Tel Aviv.

The plane, identified by Turkish officials as U.S.-owned, carried the markings of International Airlines Support Group, Inc., of Miami. Richard Wellman, a spokesman for the company, told the Associated Press that the company had sold the plane to a firm called International Air Tourism of Nigeria.

That plane is now believed to have carried a weapons shipment to Iran that had originated in Israel.


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by wanderindiana on Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 11:39:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What this causes to churn in my head?

Images of Rumsfeld meeting with Saddam Hussein; U.S.-supplied chemical weapons being used against Iran during the 80's; U.S./Israeli-supplied missiles being used by Iran against Iraq, funneled illegally, in negotiations with Hezbollah for the release of American hostages.

We supplied both sides, ultimately. Just insane.

Knowing that at least some of those involved in 1980s Reagan-era shadow operations are hooked up with Bush-Cheney (Negroponte, Poindexter, Rumsfeld, etc.), I really have to wonder what is going on right now - that there has to be so much more to the picture than meets the eye, that we'll only discover after the fact...
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by wanderindiana on Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 11:51:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wander - you have a tiger by the tail here - or should that be tale.

This could be an excellent backgrounder on todays events.  It's too long ago for some to remember the details, I know I don't - I was busy with a new babe, new job, new city, etc.

I was going to say that the parallels are spooky, but that phrase spooked ME.

by kfred on Wed Jul 26, 2006 at 05:38:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

GWU.edu's archive contains 20,000 pages on the Iran-Contra Affair on microfiche.  Too much of what you're searching for may not be available online yet, but might be available through the repository libraries.

by rba on Wed Jul 26, 2006 at 06:08:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd be curious to know the answer to that myself. I think the eighties both the U.S. and Israel were duped by Iran. In Israel's case it made sense for the Iran/Iraq war to keep going. With Reagan it was just a total screw up in Central America and giving arms for hostages.

by Intrepid Liberal Journal on Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 10:02:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...but somewhere along the line of developing the Next World Order series I described a Middle East policy that I called "coax and contain."  

In a nutshell, it gives the Middle Eastern countries a choice between going it on their own or getting help from the western nations to bring themselves into the 21st century.  Lots of ins and outs to that plan, but the main point is that western countries won't meddle militarily, especially when it comes to internal affairs.

One of these days I'll do a full blown article on the subject.

by Jeff Huber on Wed Jul 26, 2006 at 12:46:43 PM EST

because that is exactly the sort of concept we progressives need to be debating and fleshing out. We need to be the idea factory that faciliates a credible and cohesive alternative to neo-con madness.

by Intrepid Liberal Journal on Wed Jul 26, 2006 at 03:30:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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