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Set a spell, Congress. we've got a couple things to chat about...

by rcs1

This past week, much to everyone's surprise, Democrats in the House of Representatives managed to slip a proposal to increase the minimum wage into a bill funding the Departments of Labor and Health and Human Services.

Faced with the specter of having to vote against increasing the wage floor from its current embarrassing level of $5.15 to $7.25 by Jan. 1, 2009, Congressional Republicans snapped into action and pulled the bill.

This is what these brave souls do in election season when they don't want to have to go back to their districts and answer questions as to why it's ok to cut hundreds of billions in rich people's taxes but deny the working poor a boost.

Well, I say: "Not so fast, guys.  Let's chat about this for a few minutes."

Not let me get this straight.  Last month, you passed $70 billion worth of new tax cuts, mostly by extending earlier Bush cuts on dividends and capital gains.  When tax cuts target investment income, the benefits flow to the wealthy, and these cuts are exhibit A: they reduce millionaire's tax payments by $43,000, and those of middle-income families by $20.  Sorry, that's not a typo.  It's what you get when you put the YOYOs in charge of fiscal policy.

Wait a second, where you going?  I'm not done.  Set a spell...


commentary :: :: :: buzz-it!
After you finished that master stroke, you came alarmingly close to repealing the estate tax, a gift to the Paris Hilton's of the world that would have cost $1 trillion over 10 years.  A few stalwarts blocked you, but you're sure to be getting back to this one first chance you get.

Other than that, let's see...you made a lot of noise about gay marriage and flag burning, and you guys in the House just passed the Iraq War Resolution supporting the administration on Iraq and rejecting the setting of a date for troop withdrawal.

Oh, and you raised your own pay by $3,300.  In fact, you've raised your own salaries by about $35,000 since the last minimum wage increase.

But when it comes to raising the minimum wage, you pull the bill.

Let's review a few facts.  The Federal minimum wage has been stuck at $5.15 since September 1, 1997.  Come this December, you will tie the longest spell on record for ignoring the labor market's wage floor (i.e., the Reagan years, from 1981 to 1990, when Bush I signed an increase).  And since it is not adjusted for inflation, its buying power has eroded by 25% since then.

That's why the current minimum wage, in real terms, is at its lowest value since 1955.  Compared to the average wage, it's at 31%, the lowest level on record going back to 1947, meaning those stuck at or near the minimum wage are falling further behind the rest of us.

As always, your rationale for not raising the minimum is that it would hurt low-wage workers, whose employers would have to fire them when the wage mandate priced them out of the labor market (one can't help but note that this concern doesn't come up when you mandate your own pay hikes).

That would be a plausible argument, were it not for the fact that tons of careful research has disproved it.  The federal minimum wage has been raised 19 times by Congress since its introduction in 1938.  Eighteen states, covering about half of the national workforce, have minimum wages above that of the Federal level.  And over 100 cities have living wages--a higher minimum that applies to workers on city contracts or at firms with local government subsidies.  

In other words, more than any economic policy, we've had hundreds of "pseudo-experiments"--rare in economics--that allow us to test the impact of wage mandates on various outcomes.  These experiments allow us to compare before and after, or, even better, compare nearby places that face similar economic conditions but have different minimum wage laws.

The question that has received the most scrutiny is whether increases in the minimum wage lead employers to lay workers off.  You probably don't want to hear the results from me, but here's how Nobel laureate in economics, Robert Solow, put it: "The main thing about this research is that the evidence of job loss is weak. And the fact that the evidence is weak suggests that the impact on jobs is small."

A great example comes from the last Federal minimum wage increase, back in 1996-97.  The usual suspects predicted massive job losses among those affected by the increase from $4.25 to the current level of $5.15.  Instead, low-wage workers experienced the strongest job market in 30 years.  Poverty fell to historic lows, particularly for the most disadvantaged workers, such as less-skilled minorities and single-mothers.  

On the other hand, there no such body of evidence supporting your claims that cutting taxes for the rich actually accomplishes anything beyond distributing wealth up to the scale.  Did I mention that profits as a share of national income are at a 39-year high?

Now, don't get me wrong.  I'm not implying for a nanosecond that an increase in the minimum wage would offset the damage you guys have done over the past few years.  In that scheme of things, raising the pay of about seven million low-wage workers by less than two bucks is a token gesture which you will hopefully be forced to make so you can show your faces again in public.

But it would make an important difference to those workers, so you should do it.  The fact that I even have to argue with you about it is what's so painful.

Display:
Jared, excellent commentary.

This would make a great side-by-side visual.

columns:
Minimum Wage / Inheritance Tax Repeal


rows:

  • Projected # of Beneficiaries
  • Number of Congress critters in the beneficiary pool
  • Cost to taxpayers
  • Average yearly income of Beneficiaries
  • Last year (1999 etc.)that beneficiaries saw any increase

...and so forth.

by Cho on Sun Jun 18, 2006 at 01:29:40 PM EST

That would be a powerful visual.  I'll see what I can do.

BTW, cost to taxpayer of min wg increase: 0.
http://www.noyoyoeconomics.com
by Jared Bernstein on Sun Jun 18, 2006 at 02:05:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I can't see how anyone earning the minimun wage can even afford to work if they have to pay for childcare in addition to the high cost of fuel and other necessities that are increasing as a result.  

The House giving themselves a raise is nothing but an insult and slap in the face of hard working Americans they refuse to stand behind.  Their approval ratings sure don't indicate the public believes they are deserving of a raise.  

Thanks for the great post on this topic.  

by standingup on Sun Jun 18, 2006 at 01:58:29 PM EST

...for reading and appreciating it.

Re public opinion, btw, the min wg polls in the stratosphere.  Even large majorities of social conservatives back it.
http://www.noyoyoeconomics.com
by Jared Bernstein on Sun Jun 18, 2006 at 02:06:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nice cover of the issue, and you're right about having to argue.  Long past time to move away from a "minimum" and toward a "living" wage, with automatic increases.  Off the radar in D.C.

[Note:  Covered in depth @ PLAN 's Stateside Dispatch (5 Jun 06)].

by rba on Sun Jun 18, 2006 at 02:53:26 PM EST

I certainly wish I were making a living wage!
Manifest Dignity!
by breakingranks on Sun Jun 18, 2006 at 03:29:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But I also wanted to say that your style of writing is so easily understood, it's a comfortable style.  Not ranty at all.  It's a reasonable tone - come to the party of reason.  To me - any one who can read this can understand the thought process behind it.

Will it make an impact though?  And how do we make it not just an echo in the chamber?

by kfred on Sun Jun 18, 2006 at 05:46:33 PM EST

I hope we can fill that echo chamber with the type of arguments to clearly make the case that we're headed in the wrong direction and that there is an alternative.

And I'm cautiously optimistic that there's an opening.  The YOYOs (http://www.noyoyoeconomics.com) have overplayed their hands and my sense is that enough people are recognizing that conservative economic policy is bereft of positive ideas for the well-being of society writ large, and for them and their families.

The big question is whether there are talented and committed people in the opposition to move this alternative agenda, of which a min wg increase is one small part, forward.

And I really appreciate your positive comment.

thanks.

http://www.noyoyoeconomics.com
by Jared Bernstein on Mon Jun 19, 2006 at 12:15:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Need to keep getting the word out and working on this at our local levels...

by Cho on Sun Jun 18, 2006 at 06:09:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
propagate and publicize.  Long-term?  Build a "trusted source" so that eventually that little ePMedia logo will be recognized as the news version of the "good housekeeping seal".  And grow the place by soliciting original content from recognized (online) reporters.

by rba on Sun Jun 18, 2006 at 06:55:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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