ePluribus Media Community || Rita: Unchanged, Large Cat 5; 02:00 a.m. EDT [UPDATED]

Rita: Unchanged, Large Cat 5; 02:00 a.m. EDT [UPDATED]

by txj

Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 06:12:48 PM EST

As I have a degree in meteorology, I thought I'd start a Rita watch, along with my opinion of what she's doing.

I am NOT a tropical meteorologist or even a meteorologist, for that matter. If you happen upon this commentary, please DO NOT make any decisions about your safety based on my analysis. Listen/look for your local National Weather Service advisories and heed their warnings.

This commentary is for those of us watching from safety, yet worried about our fellow Americans in harm's way.

commentary :: :: :: buzz-it!

Here's some data on Rita. What I'm posting is the central pressure or atmospheric pressure in the hurricane's eye. It's about the best indicator of whether a hurricane is strengthening, weakening, or holding fast.

High pressure is good, around 1000 mb (millibars) is considered high.
Low pressure is bad, with 880 mb being very bad. Katrina was ~908 mb right before landfall, to give you an idea.

(apologies for the crappy table)

Date/Time...............................CP (mb)
02:00 AM EDT SEP 19..............1002
05:00 AM EDT SEP 19.............. 998
08:00 AM EDT SEP 19.............. 997
11:00 AM EDT SEP 19.............. 994
02:00 PM EDT SEP 19.............. 993
05:00 PM EDT SEP 19.............. 995
08:00 PM EDT SEP 19.............. 993
11:00 PM EDT SEP 19.............. 990
02:00 AM EDT SEP 20.............. 991
05:00 AM EDT SEP 20.............. 988
08:00 AM EDT SEP 20........... 988 (begins steady, rapid pressure drop)
11:00 AM EDT SEP 20.............. 982
02:00 PM EDT SEP 20.............. 978
05:00 PM EDT SEP 20.............. 973
08:00 PM EDT SEP 20.............. 969
11:00 PM EDT SEP 20.............. 965
02:00 AM EDT SEP 21.............. 960
05:00 AM EDT SEP 21.............. 956
08:00 AM EDT SEP 21.............. 948
11:00 AM EDT SEP 21.............. 944
> 05:00 PM EDT SEP 21........... 914
>> 08:00 PM EDT SEP 21........... 898
>> 11:00 PM EDT SEP 21........... 897
>> 02:00 AM EDT SEP 22........... 898

In the interest in getting the most important information "up top," continuing updates will be posted directly below as they occcur

^^^ UPDATE 02:00 a.m. EDT, 9/22/05 ^^^
Rita remains a large, Cat 5 hurricane with little change over the last 6 hours: CP is now 898 mb and she is moving at 9 mph WNW toward the eastern coast of TX. After reaching the warmest water in the gulf, Rita is now "re-organizing" before making her final move toward landfall sometime Friday or Saturday. The storm track is still uncertain, but the Texas coastline between Galveston and Corpus Christi is still most likely. Rita has increased in size slightly but is still about 1/2 the size of Katrina, despite her strength. Hurricane force winds of near 175 mph extend outward from the eye about 70 miles, but tropical force winds now reach outward to 185 miles. Perhaps some slightly good news: weather models are much better at predicting 2 days or less. Because the time until Rita makes landfall is about 2 days, several models are now beginning to agree and suggest Rita may speed up, but weaken significantly to a strong Cat 3 or weak Cat 4 during the next 48 hours. However, this is by no means certain and Rita is currently an extremely dangerous and unpredictable storm. Even if she does weaken, she is still potentially catastrophic depending on many other factors. The surest way to remain safe is to evacuate before the storm gets close.

^^^ UPDATE 11:00 p.m. EDT, 9/21/05 ^^^
Rita is still strengthening, a major Category 5 hurricane with a CP of 897 mb. Her central pressure has decreased continuously for more than 24 hours without once increasing. However during the last 3 hours, Rita's CP only dropped 1 mb, a significant change in the rate of decrease. Rita has also slowed from moving westward at 13-15 mph to 9 mph, another significant change. Rita is currently passing into the warmest part of the GOM. This is one possible reason why she has slowed, as the winds try to drive her westward, but her biggest energy source is still to the north. Unfortunately, it is now difficult to predict what Rita will do next -- if she stays near the warm water she could grow significantly in size and even 'weaken' slightly, although she would then resemble Katrina. Rita could also speed up again quickly and continue toward the east TX coast. My guess is that Rita's CP will flucuate some over the next several hours, but remain about the same as she picks up speed again, continuing westward. However this is probably the most critical "wait and see" period. In either case, it seems unavoidable that a major Cat 4 or 5 hurricane will make landfall near eastern TX sometime Friday or Saturday.

^^^ UPDATE 08:00 p.m. EDT, 9/21/05 ^^^
Rita is now the 3rd strongest Atlantic hurricane on record with a CP of 898 mb, surpassing Katrina's lowest recorded CP of 902 mb. She is growing in size as well, with 165 mph winds extending 70 miles outward from the eye. Rita now has the potential to be extraordinarily devastasting -- the lowest central pressure ever recorded is 882 mb, a mark that Rita could well challenge. Do not take any chances with this storm. If you have even the slightest thought about evacuating, listen to it and stay safe.

^^^ UPDATE 05:00 p.m. EDT, 9/21/05 ^^^
After entering the warm GOM Loop Current, Rita blew up into a Category 5 hurricane in a matter of hours, with her central pressure plummeting to 914 mb. "Bombing out" is a term used by meteorologists to describe a hurricanes that develops extremely quickly. Note in the table above that Rita's CP dropped 30 mb in just 6 hours. At 5:00 EDT today, Rita was located at latitude 24.4, longtiude 86.8, and was declared a Cat 5 -- in a strikingly similar manner as Katrina. On 8/28 at 8:00 a.m. EDT, just 53 miles from where Rita is now, Katrina also reached Cat 5 status. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. Please take all appropriate measures to ensure your safety. ---
---
---
---
below, postings starting at 2:00 p.m., 9/20.

. Here's my take: Florida is probably OK. At 2:00 p.m. EDT, Rita was 50 miles off the keys, but with hurricane winds only extending out 30 miles. That's 1/3 the size of Katrina. Rita's central pressure is still fairly high, but the trend over the last 6 hours is alarming -- dropping about 1-2 mb/hr. That's pretty rapid.

If she only clips FL, she'll make it into the GOM which probably isn't good news. The sea surface temps (hurricane fuel) in the gulf have been a little above normal for the past 6 weeks. The key will be what happens once she's in the gulf. If Rita stalls, she'll probably strengthen -- if she keeps moving, she'll probably hit E. Texas as a weak Cat 2 or 1.

Winds not only have a lot to do with a hurricane's path, but also its strenght. If the winds high in the atmosphere are strong compared to near the surface, that weakens a hurricane a lot. Hurricanes usually need to be very tall and straight to grow large.

Look for the 5:00 advisory. That'll be a very important one.

^^^ UPDATE 5:00 p.m. EDT ^^^
Rita's bascially cleared FL/Cuba and headed for the gulf. Her central pressure has dropped another 5 mb, which means she did not weaken at all through the Straits of Florida. By comparison, Katrina weakened significantly by traveling over land, but then stalled and re-intensified in the GOM.

However, Rita is still pretty tiny, as hurricanes go: hurricane winds only extend 50 miles out from her eye, about 1/3 the size of Katrina. That's good -- it can matter a lot for things like storm surge.

The last 3-hours have provided some good news in that FL/Cuba may get off without much damage. However the meteorological data are a little worrisome as Rita's central pressure continues to deepen rapidly. The next NWS advisory should be out at 8:00 EDT, unless the storm intensifies significantly in which case they'll begin to issue statements every 2 hours.

^^^ UPDATE 8:00 p.m. EDT ^^^
Rita's CP has dropped another 4 mb to 969, according to the latest NWS advisory. Additionally, she is moving at 12 mph, slowing down slightly from the last reporting period.

^^^ UPDATE 11:00 p.m. EDT ^^^
Rita continues to strengthen with yet another 4 mb decrease in CP to 965 mb. All signs are beginning to suggest another dangerous hurricane has entered the GOM.

Rita is still technically a Category 2 hurricane, but the NWS is predicting she will be a Cat 3 by Weds. morning and a Cat 4 by Weds. evening. Rita has now become a potentially very dangerous storm. PLEASE be advised and take appropriate measures.

^^^ UPDATE 02:00 a.m. EDT ^^^
The story of Hurricane Rita continues to get worse as her central pressure dropped another 5 mb in just three hours. Rita is still moving rapidly through the gulf, which can limit a storm's potential, but the steadily decreasing pressure is not a good indication.

Rita has officially become a Category 3 hurricane and should reach Cat 4 later today. This is now a dangerous storm and will likely worsen. PLEASE take all appropriate measures to ensure your safety.

^^^ UPDATE 08:00 a.m. EDT ^^^
Rita is now a major Cat 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 135 mph. She has increased the rate at which she is strengthening, has a central pressure of 948 mb, and should reach Cat 4 later today. Though moving quickly, she is now similar in size and strength to hurricane Katrina.

^^^ UPDATE 11:00 a.m. EDT ^^^
Sorry, busy in RL, but Rita is still deepening rapidly, now with a CP of 944 mb. Unfortunately, none of the news is good as Rita heads toward a warm GOM current known as the "Loop Current" located approximately 86W, 26N (lat, lon). The loop current is where Katrina grew to Cat 5 (see image below).

-------
If you are along the GOM, good luck and be safe. I think I speak for everyone at ePMedia when I say you are in our thoughts and prayers.

todd

Rita: Unchanged, Large Cat 5; 02:00 a.m. EDT [UPDATED] | 47 comments (47 topical, 0 hidden)

Possible Cat 4 latter on (5.00 / 1) (#13)

http://www.local6.com/weather/4993486/detail.html

The latest projected path of movement takes Rita through the Keys as a Category 2 hurricane and then into the Gulf of Mexico on a possible track for Texas or Louisiana, according to Local 6 News meteorologist Tom Sorrells.

The National Hurricane Center believes Rita could be a Category 3 hurricane by the time it makes landfall in Texas after it leaves Florida.

However, Sorrells said there is no shear in the Gulf of Mexico and nothing to slow the storm down in the 80 degree waters.

"I can easily see this thing becoming a Category 4 or monster 5 in the Gulf before making landfall in Texas, sometime on Friday," Sorrells said.

Corruption and hypocrisy ought not to be inevitable products of democracy, as they undoubtedly are today. - Gandhi
by XicanoPwr on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 09:47:10 PM EST

Am I the only one (none / 0) (#14)

who finds this graphic really amusing? Not to make light of a potential natural disaster, but could that picture be any more phallic?
They said, "kick all the illegal aliens out, then build a super-fence so they can't get back in." And I went, "Um, who's gonna build it?" --Carlos Mencia
by txj on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 10:19:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No your not the only one (none / 0) (#15)

Look at it this way, we are getting screwed again by the BIG OIL INDUSTRY. THANKS GUYS FOR CREATING THOSE RIPE CONDITIONS.
Corruption and hypocrisy ought not to be inevitable products of democracy, as they undoubtedly are today. - Gandhi
by XicanoPwr on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 11:41:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

OK, good (none / 0) (#17)

I thought maybe you got the graphic from an Enzyte commercial.
They said, "kick all the illegal aliens out, then build a super-fence so they can't get back in." And I went, "Um, who's gonna build it?" --Carlos Mencia
by txj on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 11:59:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think this is better (none / 0) (#20)

Corruption and hypocrisy ought not to be inevitable products of democracy, as they undoubtedly are today. - Gandhi
by XicanoPwr on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 12:41:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

that graphic's implications are more comforting (none / 0) (#21)

if its shape is not! at least as i read it, slowing down to 70 mph winds by landfall time?

by luaptifer on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 01:26:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

: *lol* (none / 0) (#22)

"if its shape is not!"
I'm glad you said it.
They said, "kick all the illegal aliens out, then build a super-fence so they can't get back in." And I went, "Um, who's gonna build it?" --Carlos Mencia
by txj on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 01:46:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
: All kidding aside (none / 0) (#23)

It's the number before landfall -- that 135 mph -- that matters. That 70 looks to me like after it makes landfall. Land shreds a hurricane up quickly by removing its energy source and adding friction. Friction (against the wind) over land is much, much higher than over water.
Those of you near the Great Lakes know about "lake effect" snow. One factor is wind blowing across the water slows down when it reaches the shore. So the wind behind it piles up against it and causes updrafts. Strong updrafts usually mean precipitation.
They said, "kick all the illegal aliens out, then build a super-fence so they can't get back in." And I went, "Um, who's gonna build it?" --Carlos Mencia
by txj on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 01:55:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Families are being split up (5.00 / 1) (#45)

I got a called from my sister from Austin, was just telling me that her hospital received all of the 15 neo-natal infants from the hospitals in Galveston. Only the infants came in, therefore there parents are still here in the Houston-Galveston area.
Corruption and hypocrisy ought not to be inevitable products of democracy, as they undoubtedly are today. - Gandhi
by XicanoPwr on Thu Sep 22, 2005 at 03:47:41 PM EST

Thanks... (none / 0) (#1)

You make it very understandable so that those of us watching from safety can understand what factors indicate danger.

by Cho on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 06:50:49 PM EST

National Hurricane Center 5-Day Cone (none / 0) (#2)

This image should be a constantly updated forecast of the path of Rita over the course of 5 days.

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by wanderindiana on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 07:23:21 PM EST

: Nice (none / 0) (#4)

Thanks, Wander.
They said, "kick all the illegal aliens out, then build a super-fence so they can't get back in." And I went, "Um, who's gonna build it?" --Carlos Mencia
by txj on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 07:57:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Weatherbug.com? (none / 0) (#3)

I have weatherbug.com active on my Windows bar at all times and have set it for certain alerts.

I work from home and don't have the TV or radio on, so it's my way of keeping track of weather distrubances.

The base software is free but there is a cheap subscription for a year if one wants all the bells and whistles. I find it helpful.

by kfred on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 07:44:21 PM EST

FYI (none / 0) (#5)

I'm fairly certain weatherbug is spyware.
They said, "kick all the illegal aliens out, then build a super-fence so they can't get back in." And I went, "Um, who's gonna build it?" --Carlos Mencia
by txj on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 07:58:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I was thinking the same thing but (none / 0) (#12)

our local news station has signed a contract with them, so I don't know if they took the spyware out of it.

http://www.khou.com/weather/
Corruption and hypocrisy ought not to be inevitable products of democracy, as they undoubtedly are today. - Gandhi
by XicanoPwr on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 09:38:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

: I got it thru my local TV website also (none / 0) (#27)

I don't think it's spyware, but the free version is loaded with popups. When running my Adware or Spyware programs it is not identifying anything related to it.

by kfred on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 09:19:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Stupid Question Time (none / 0) (#6)

Todd -- Slowing down is bad news....right? Means it strengthens, gets stable and nasty?

by Cho on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 08:47:13 PM EST

Slowing down (none / 0) (#9)

is potentially bad. The quickest way to breakdown a hurricane is making landfall. The worst thing is if it sits around in the gulf, drawing strength from the warm water. The longer it stays, the bigger it gets, generally speaking.
They said, "kick all the illegal aliens out, then build a super-fence so they can't get back in." And I went, "Um, who's gonna build it?" --Carlos Mencia
by txj on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 09:08:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Thanks Todd! (none / 0) (#10)

You really do make it easy to understand. (remember, I grew up in the desert. Don't understand water.)

by Cho on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 09:10:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Water is an amazing thing (none / 0) (#11)

Water, probably more than anything else -- even carbon, is the key to life. Its "strange" behavior is pretty much what makes it possible to live here.

Also, water perfectly illustrates what a pain in the ass it is to forecast the weather. A storm the size of a hurricane -- hundreds of miles across -- depends critically on evaporation and condensation, i.e. the behavior of individual water molecules.

Try writing a computer model that uses a number like .0000000000001 to make significant changes to a number like 1,000,000.
They said, "kick all the illegal aliens out, then build a super-fence so they can't get back in." And I went, "Um, who's gonna build it?" --Carlos Mencia
by txj on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 09:21:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

dude, you gonna get into hydrogen bonding now?! (none / 0) (#16)

:-)

by luaptifer on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 11:45:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

: You should know, man (none / 0) (#18)

if it weren't for that funky bond angle, you'd never eat: no microwave oven.
They said, "kick all the illegal aliens out, then build a super-fence so they can't get back in." And I went, "Um, who's gonna build it?" --Carlos Mencia
by txj on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 12:02:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Being from Houston (none / 0) (#7)

Thank you for explaining in more easier terms for people to understand.
Corruption and hypocrisy ought not to be inevitable products of democracy, as they undoubtedly are today. - Gandhi
by XicanoPwr on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 09:02:33 PM EST

: You know... (5.00 / 1) (#19)

...the funny thing is, the media makes science way harder to understand by dumbing it down. All I did was tell you what number the atmospheric scientists watch: the central pressure.
Hurricanes are just really big low pressure systems. Most people understand low pressure = crappy weather, high pressure = nice weather. So really low pressure = really crappy weather.
All I did was repeat that and give it a reference: 1000 good, 880 bad. But the frickin' TV talking heads have to start spouting off stuff they don't even understand to make themselves sound important.
Even the Category system is a bad idea. I guess maybe it helps reinforce the idea that evacuating is good, but if you get hit with a flying cow does it really matter if it's traveling 109 mph instead of 110 mph? "Mmm. Good thing that was a Cat 2 cow, not a Cat 3. Mighta hurt, otherwise."
They said, "kick all the illegal aliens out, then build a super-fence so they can't get back in." And I went, "Um, who's gonna build it?" --Carlos Mencia
by txj on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 12:13:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

NHC Wind Speed Forecast for Rita (none / 0) (#8)

This graphic shows the National Hurricane Center's current forecast for Rita's maximum sustained wind speed. The blue line represents the predicted wind speed on the vertical scale. The numbers along the bottom are hours from now.

The broad orange band shows the most likely range about the forecast. The yellow bands above and below represent a 20% chance of winds at that speed, etc.

The predictions are based on a statistical analysis of every named hurricane between 1988-1997.

They said, "kick all the illegal aliens out, then build a super-fence so they can't get back in." And I went, "Um, who's gonna build it?" --Carlos Mencia
by txj on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 09:06:29 PM EST

Latest wind speed forecast (none / 0) (#28)

Shows winds strengthening to 155 mph over the next 12 hours, then weakening.

If this chart is accurate, Rita will be a weakening Category 3 when it makes landfall sometime late Friday/early Saturday morning.
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by wanderindiana on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 11:41:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

(Comment Deleted) (none / 0) (#38)

This comment has been deleted by wanderindiana

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by wanderindiana on Thu Sep 22, 2005 at 08:39:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

: Graphic upthread is updating itself (none / 0) (#39)

Didn't realize that and removed a duplicate.
Also commented that yesterday's forecast was wrong, and that current models show Rita as a strong Category 4 when it makes landfall.
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by wanderindiana on Thu Sep 22, 2005 at 08:43:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Latest updated (none / 0) (#24)

02:00 AM EDT SEP 21.............. 956
Corruption and hypocrisy ought not to be inevitable products of democracy, as they undoubtedly are today. - Gandhi
by XicanoPwr on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 07:02:29 AM EST

The Time Has Finally Arrived (none / 0) (#25)

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

...SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT RITA HAS BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
Corruption and hypocrisy ought not to be inevitable products of democracy, as they undoubtedly are today. - Gandhi
by XicanoPwr on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 08:05:59 AM EST

A Possible Future Event (none / 0) (#26)

From The Daily News soon after Katrina hit NOLA.

Published September 4, 2005
If Katrina had hit Galveston, here's what would have happened:
About 10 hours before the eye of the storm crossed the Seawall, high winds would have ripped into those who had thought about leaving but had procrastinated.
The same winds that made it impossible for them to move would have pinned down emergency workers, making them unable to answer calls for help.
As the storm drew nearer, the winds would have gotten higher. The water would have begun to rise.
The West End of Galveston Island, the Bolivar Peninsula and low-lying areas along the bay would have disappeared.
Then a 20-foot wall of water would have rolled over the island and peninsula.
On the West End and the peninsula, the surge would have topped 20 feet. Houses would have vanished.
The surge would have easily topped the Seawall. Damage would have been catastrophic.
On to the Mainland
The surge would have rolled over the island - and then rolled over TexasCity, La Marque, Hitchcock, Santa Fe, Dickinson, League City and Friendswood.
Picture the surge stopping near Baybrook Mall. That, for a while, is the new shoreline. Looking south, you just see the Gulf.
http://maps.google.com/maps?spn=0.504581,1.296799&t=h&saddr=Galveston&daddr=500+Baybrook +Mall,+Friendswood,+TX+77546%C2%A0(Baybrook+Mall)&hl=en
Along the bay in Texas City, San Leon and Bacliff, the storm surge would have scoured huge sections of the shoreline away. Some areas would have simply disappeared.
http://maps.google.com/maps?q=Texas+City&ll=29.389370,-94.923387&sll=29.413670,-94.971105&am p;spn=0.504284,1.296799&sspn=0.531138,1.365051&t=h&num=10&start=0&hl=en
In Friendswood, Dickinson and League City, the surge from the bay would have run up the bayous and creeks. Meanwhile, the storm bands that caused horrific flooding along Clear Creek in much smaller storms would dump heavy rainfall into the watershed.
Communities in the North County would see flooding by both salt and fresh water.
Looking over Galveston County at the peak of the surge, you would have seen a few islands. But mostly you would have seen the waters of the Gulf.
And when the surge receded, you would have seen crushed houses, large boats on dry land and bodies.
You would have seen the same horrific pictures you are now seeing from Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
A bad tradition
Many people in Galveston County think that picture is false.
They talk about ancestors who stayed through historic storms. They ridicule people who talk about leaving. They talk, as their ancestors did, about the unpredictability of storms.
But science has changed dramatically in a lifetime. The science of predicting these storms has improved dramatically in the past 10 years.
Seventy-two hours before Katrina hit, forecasters had pinpointed where it would land within 30 miles. That's less than the length of the island.
They predicted the level of the storm surge to within inches.
All along the line, what forecasters predicted was eerily accurate.
People who think they would be safe behind the Seawall - or anywhere else in Galveston County - during a Category 5 storm are irrational, dangerously so.

Corruption and hypocrisy ought not to be inevitable products of democracy, as they undoubtedly are today. - Gandhi
by XicanoPwr on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 09:06:28 AM EST

GOM Loop Current (none / 0) (#29)

The "Loop Current" is an especially warm GOM current where Katrina blew into a Category 5 hurricane. The image below shows more or less where the Loop Current is at this time. The red tongue shows the location, about 86W, 26N.

They said, "kick all the illegal aliens out, then build a super-fence so they can't get back in." And I went, "Um, who's gonna build it?" --Carlos Mencia
by txj on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 12:28:53 PM EST

check this out (none / 0) (#30)

http://www.gomr.mms.gov/homepg/lsesale/Visual2.pdf

All the black dots are oil/gas related rigs.
You can also see the tanker highways in the gulf.

by intranets on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 02:50:24 PM EST

Rita is making history (none / 0) (#31)

HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
650 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA BECOMES THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED...
WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB.
Corruption and hypocrisy ought not to be inevitable products of democracy, as they undoubtedly are today. - Gandhi
by XicanoPwr on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 08:52:58 PM EST

(Comment Deleted) (none / 0) (#32)

This comment has been deleted by XicanoPwr

Corruption and hypocrisy ought not to be inevitable products of democracy, as they undoubtedly are today. - Gandhi
by XicanoPwr on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 09:34:22 PM EST

In 6 hours or so, we'll probably know (none / 0) (#33)

But unfortunately, now it's anybody's guess what happens next. From the 'internal' NWS discussions posted on the web between the pros, even they're putting big error bars on everything. Though scary strong, Rita is still kinda small -- big winds but only out 70 miles from the eye and she's stayed that way throughout. Katrina at one point had ~160 mph winds 170 miles outward from the eye. That's one big scary beast.

The worrisome part about Rita is her speed dropped from a very consistent 13-15 mph over the last 2-3 days, to 9 mph right when she got to the warmest part of the gulf (see the sea-surface temp plot I posted). If she hangs around there for any length of time, she's going to get big like Katrina.

A lot depends on the winds pushing Rita around. If they aren't that strong, she could follow those warm currents more closely which means she'd turn northward. That would be bad. If that happens, she might make landfall closer to western LA.
They said, "kick all the illegal aliens out, then build a super-fence so they can't get back in." And I went, "Um, who's gonna build it?" --Carlos Mencia
by txj on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 11:50:54 PM EST

any way you could post a to-scale visual of (none / 0) (#34)

Katrina vs. Rita, standingup had suggested that.

btw, i saw on Darksyde's thread reference to the T differential across the eyewall being 21 C.

overcoming my dyslexia to recall the formula correctly (thx google!),

(C*9) / 5 + 32= Degrees Fahrenheit

==> that's 70 degrees Fahrenheit, folks that's freaking radical!!! and consistent with the freaking radical pressure differential!

by luaptifer on Thu Sep 22, 2005 at 12:30:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

For some reason (none / 0) (#35)

I always find it easier to remember that 9/5 relationship. E.g., one degree celcius is 9/5 a degree Farhenheit: 1 deg F = 1.8 deg C. Then it's just adding or subtracting 32.

So 21 deg C = 21 + .8*21 = 21 + 16.8 = 37.8. Farhenheit is higher, so add 32 to get 69.8 deg F.

While I usually despise using anything other than metric units, I find deg F to be a better measure for human comfort. One degree C is almost twice as large as one degree F and I think most people are sensitive enough to distinguish between a degree or two, especially in certain rainges.

I sure can tell the difference between 68 F and 70 F. And my aging parents house, usually 72 F feels like a frickin' sauna compared to my 66-68 deg F house.
They said, "kick all the illegal aliens out, then build a super-fence so they can't get back in." And I went, "Um, who's gonna build it?" --Carlos Mencia
by txj on Thu Sep 22, 2005 at 02:02:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

: There you go again, Todd (none / 0) (#40)

... Making science comprehensible!

by Cho on Thu Sep 22, 2005 at 10:11:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It will be back at us (none / 0) (#36)

Some good news - they do believe the winds are dying down. It has gone from 175 to 170.
Corruption and hypocrisy ought not to be inevitable products of democracy, as they undoubtedly are today. - Gandhi
by XicanoPwr on Thu Sep 22, 2005 at 08:03:10 AM EST

Traffic (none / 0) (#37)

The solid white line is traffic heading out of Houston.

Corruption and hypocrisy ought not to be inevitable products of democracy, as they undoubtedly are today. - Gandhi
by XicanoPwr on Thu Sep 22, 2005 at 08:18:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Off Topic... XP are you safe? <n/t> (none / 0) (#41)

by Cho on Thu Sep 22, 2005 at 10:13:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

: Yes (none / 0) (#42)

Right now, I am in the safe zone now. Since it is going up north of me. Galveston and everthing up North of downtown are in danger.
There is no way to leave the city even if I want to. The roads are jammed back and people are running out of gas. The have been in the same area for over 10 hours. Gas stations are running out of gas.
WE ARE HAVING A GAS CRISIS.
THIS IS POOR PLANNING.
PLEASE INFORM PEOPLE OF THE GAS CRISIS WE ARE HAVING. CARS ARE STALLING ON THE HIGHWAY.
Corruption and hypocrisy ought not to be inevitable products of democracy, as they undoubtedly are today. - Gandhi
by XicanoPwr on Thu Sep 22, 2005 at 10:25:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Here are some photos I took (none / 0) (#43)

Click to enlarge.
Corruption and hypocrisy ought not to be inevitable products of democracy, as they undoubtedly are today. - Gandhi
by XicanoPwr on Thu Sep 22, 2005 at 01:39:11 PM EST

Good news - 150 mph winds (none / 0) (#44)

HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

...RITA WEAKENS A LITTLE FURTHER...REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING.
Corruption and hypocrisy ought not to be inevitable products of democracy, as they undoubtedly are today. - Gandhi
by XicanoPwr on Thu Sep 22, 2005 at 02:37:22 PM EST

Mayor White Fears Evacuation May Become Death Trap (none / 0) (#46)

One of the evacuation route may become a death trap because there is no gas left for people.

Image hosted by Photobucket.com

Hurricane evacuation routes
Texas City, La Porte, Kemah: Take Highway 146 North to Hwy. 321 North to 59 North to Lufkin

High Island: Take Hwy. 124 North to FM 1406 North to Hwy. 90 West to Hwy. 146 North to Lufkin

For in inland communities not listed on the evacuation map, use the nearest evacuation route to your area

Chambers County: Mandatory evacuation ordered
Residents are urged to use Highways 146 and 124

One of the evacuation routes is Rt146, Brazoria, Galveston and parts of Houston are suppose to use that route for the evacuation. So you have three counties who have been using that route but today, Liberty county is now ordering an evacuation route. Therefore, a major traffic jam. They have closed exit routes so you are stuck on that route. To give you an idea the traffic time, people are moving 1 mile per 2 hours and in some places 6 or 10 hours. Cars are even over heating. Thousands of people are running out of gas. The city and state are unable to re-fuel them. If things do not get better, Rt146 WILL BECOME A DEATH TRAP.

I live Houston, I am safer riding out Rita. This is poor planning.
Corruption and hypocrisy ought not to be inevitable products of democracy, as they undoubtedly are today. - Gandhi
by XicanoPwr on Thu Sep 22, 2005 at 05:44:26 PM EST

: Oh no --- (none / 0) (#47)

XP, can you start a commentary blogging on the evacuation... would that be okay?

by Cho on Thu Sep 22, 2005 at 05:54:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]